“HSBC reports;
AI – Asia Insights: Malaysia: political risk exaggerated
Investors have become wary about Malaysia since the elections in March.
We think the political risk is exaggerated
Economic growth remains robust, and Malaysia one of the most defensive markets in the region
The market now looks attractive. We reiterate our overweight
Investors continue to be nervous about the Malaysian stock market, after the government’s poor showing in the general election on March 8. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell by 11% the day after the election and has continued to lag the region since (Chart 1). Some foreign investors are fearful that political uncertainty could evolve into a more dangerous situation, leading to popular unrest or even army intervention. At the very least, the central government could try to starve the five (out of 13) states controlled by the opposition of development funds, which would hurt economic growth. We disagree. A visit to Kuala Lumpur this week confirmed our view that political risks are exaggerated, and that the development of a credible opposition is, rather, an extremely positive long-term development.
Malaysia is typically a very defensive market (which is why it outperformed sharply in Q4 after the global equity correction began) but also has decent economic growth (consensus forecasts real GDP growth of 5.5% this year). This, in our view, is exactly the sort of market investors want to be overweight in the current uncertain environment. Malaysian stocks had got too expensive at the beginning of the year, with forward PE reaching 16.5x (Chart 2). But the correction in the market has brought valuations down to only 13.8x, below the recent historical average – and that is based on an excessively pessimistic forecast that EPS for MSCI Malaysia will fall by 10% this year. We are comfortable with our overweight recommendation on this market and continue to look for the KLCI to reach 1380 this year (currently it is 1284).” [Please refer HSBC full report]
AI – Asia Insights: Malaysia: political risk exaggerated
Investors have become wary about Malaysia since the elections in March.
We think the political risk is exaggerated
Economic growth remains robust, and Malaysia one of the most defensive markets in the region
The market now looks attractive. We reiterate our overweight
Investors continue to be nervous about the Malaysian stock market, after the government’s poor showing in the general election on March 8. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell by 11% the day after the election and has continued to lag the region since (Chart 1). Some foreign investors are fearful that political uncertainty could evolve into a more dangerous situation, leading to popular unrest or even army intervention. At the very least, the central government could try to starve the five (out of 13) states controlled by the opposition of development funds, which would hurt economic growth. We disagree. A visit to Kuala Lumpur this week confirmed our view that political risks are exaggerated, and that the development of a credible opposition is, rather, an extremely positive long-term development.
Malaysia is typically a very defensive market (which is why it outperformed sharply in Q4 after the global equity correction began) but also has decent economic growth (consensus forecasts real GDP growth of 5.5% this year). This, in our view, is exactly the sort of market investors want to be overweight in the current uncertain environment. Malaysian stocks had got too expensive at the beginning of the year, with forward PE reaching 16.5x (Chart 2). But the correction in the market has brought valuations down to only 13.8x, below the recent historical average – and that is based on an excessively pessimistic forecast that EPS for MSCI Malaysia will fall by 10% this year. We are comfortable with our overweight recommendation on this market and continue to look for the KLCI to reach 1380 this year (currently it is 1284).” [Please refer HSBC full report]
Hi ya all,
Here is my $2 Ringgit view (2 sen not applicable anymore in view of Inflation);
72 hours elevated rumor of 17 MP's crossover ramshackle? Yup the 72 hours was tense and in doubt as rumors of possible crossover 17 BN MP's been up-played by political quarters across the country; also said many East Malaysia (Kings) prominent figure was between the departure hall and the arrival airplane in KLIA.
But much has been said and done perhaps over the 72 hours has triggered or swing certain paramount executive decisions, so to speak. So, what has transpired? Maybe those who are close allied to the connected parties may not even know what the going is... really; it has now become a guessing game. The puppets Master call the shot.., so they say. But who are the puppets and which is the Master? A guessing game indeed...
Today Malaysian has cross the enchanter territory. We Malaysian belief in unity and harmony but facing the crossroad in between reaching to the peak... can these be the peak or would 16th Sept means anything at all to PL. If, yes, what's up? Deal with haunting in BN; clear communiqué programs engagement to the grassroots' level. Professionals should be employed to do the job, just like any US Presidency campaign.
The communiqué programs should be a program of telling the truth... the truth is a good thing and let it be told the right professional way. Will PL has any counter measures or any preemptive strike? Your guess is as good as mine…
§ Cheers.
Note: Though the rumor was put to rest but the stock mart is in doldrums still.... no one wants to do anything... The mart should be managed (not rigged), don't you think? ...deal with it, man! or be deal with.
Btw, I am never link to any political party, I'm just Malaysian.
Tiada ulasan:
Catat Ulasan